A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
